Re: [情報] 美元會再漲5% ！？降息不可能？

https://www.pttweb.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694237467.A.9B8 這篇文章很可惜的被刪掉了 其實ptt上有很多篇文章都在談論利率，如 https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694616152.A.269.html https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694611617.A.C3E.html https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694391683.A.776.html 等等，多不勝數 不過我也不怪板主，畢竟板主是無給職，每天要花那麼多時間維持板面也是很辛苦的 。 進入正文 臺灣人普遍都對利率太樂觀了 美國房貸利率7% 全世界平均房貸利率6% 臺灣房貸利率2% 日本房貸利率1.5% 全世界臺灣應該是第二名，只輸日本而已 。 美國縱然降息，他還有7% 利率這個東西，他是看絕對數字，而不是相對數字 舉例來說 醫師的薪水一直下降 服務員的薪水一直上升 有人會因為這樣不去當醫師而跑去當服務員嗎? 醫師薪水長期走降，但還是很高 服務員薪水長期走升，但還是很低 。 全世界利率平均是6% 就算下降2%，那也還有4%，是臺灣整整2倍之多 。 https://www.thenewslens.com/article/168320 美國是2022/3開始升息，一共升了5.5%，2022/3之前美國的利率是很低的 全世界也跟美國一樣，2022/3開始大幅升息，少數幾個國家例外而已 臺灣只升了0.5%，只有美國的1/10 像臺灣這樣的情況非常的少見，而且也不會長久 。 全世界的經濟是連在一起的，現在有人硬要說全世界都很差，只有我還好??? 全世界的通膨是連在一起的，現在有人硬要說全世界都高通膨，只有我還好??? 這個是一定不會長久的 。 我說臺灣房價會腰斬，這個是好意提醒你們，但你們聽不進去，硬要認為我在唱衰，然後 亂檢舉，我也不知道該說些什麼 大多數的人都對臺灣房價、臺灣利率太樂觀了 臺灣獨立於全世界的情況是不會長久的 ※ 引述《gothmog (上海極司非爾路76號)》之銘言： : 不負責翻譯在最後 : Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says : The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still- : elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti : ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management. : Bloomberg News : Anya Andrianova : Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧ : (Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m : onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu : rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management. : Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition : al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further : interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi : ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan : d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen. : His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru : ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows : it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic : ipated. : The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda : y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But : as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road : as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil : l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug : hly 4.3% now. : “The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall : y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10 : 0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target : s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.” : Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says : Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro : ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov. : 1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h : ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation. : STORY CONTINUES BELOW : The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r : elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China. : US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show : inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The : CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in : July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to : 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows. : Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets : “Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate : out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “ : But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t : hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.” : Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua : n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most. : He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v : ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening. : But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet : ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden : cut rates.” : In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as : he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for : most of 2024. : (Updates market movement.) : 不負責翻譯如下 : Acadian Asset Management（知名資產管理公司）管理著約1000億美元的基金經理Clifton : Hill表示， : 未來幾個月，美元將隨著美國國債收益率的上漲而上漲，美元兌換其它貨幣將再上升5%（Fe : d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的會議上宣布加息） : 因為通膨打不下來，可能會推動美聯儲進一步收緊政策，至少再加息2-3次 : 他說：美國核心通膨還在4%以上 就不能說反通膨成功，反通膨沒有成功 就不能提降息 : 結論： 救救美債？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.44.10.2 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694658290.A.4D7.html