Re: [新聞] 2026台海戰爭兵推結果美日台慘勝 美智庫

不太確定是否為正確資料來源 https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan https://reurl.cc/GX2O3v 報告: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ https://reurl.cc/eWKANM P52 Ground-Launched Missiles China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is a formidable force. Thus, each game turn begins with ground-based missile attacks. These missiles primarily target U.S. and Japanese surface ships and air bases. 中國玩家每次會以地對地飛彈發動突擊 同時攻擊美日水面艦與空軍基地 To speed up play, China’s war-opening joint fires strike on Taiwan was modeled and pre-adjudicated in every iteration. 這邊我不確定意思 This strike employs much of China’s short-range ballistic missile inventory and would largely destroy Taiwan’s navy and cripple its air force. 中國用光短程彈道飛彈打爛台灣海軍並削弱台灣空軍 解釋為何可以打爛台灣海軍的原因放在註119 119 Taiwan’s navy consists of outdated ships that would be subjected to a wide array of Chinese coastal defense cruise missiles, Houbei fast-attack boats, and bombing from attack aircraft. The ships possess only rudimentary self-defenses that are unsuitable for the sophistication of Chinese attacks. China’s success in destroying these ships would be even greater if China could catch them in port because Taiwan failed to receive or react to warnings of China’s impending attack. While some Taiwanese ships would survive this initial strike, they would be unable to operate in the strait or as an effective force. For an overview of Taiwan’s navy, see: “Overview of Taiwanese Navy Warships,” YouTube video, posted by Eurasia Nabal Insight, August 13, 2022, 20:37, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItW7f3_BVCo. 台灣艦隊擺爛太久防空能力低弱 然後又可能在港口被奇襲 所以很可能第一波就被炸爛 剩下的也沒啥用處 這是CSIS的看法 被短程彈道飛彈炸爛的理由就見人見智吧 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 111.71.77.138 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1673427975.A.873.html