[外絮] Warriors-Raptors NBA Finals preview

Warriors-Raptors NBA Finals preview: Defending Steph Curry, Kevin Durant's absence, Kawhi Leonard's crunch-time edge https://tinyurl.com/y4cx4puu 勇士暴龍總冠軍賽preview重點 1. 防守Steph Curry, 2.KD的缺賽, 3.可愛關鍵時刻的表現 The 2019 NBA Finals are set to begin Thursday night in Toronto between the Raptors and the Golden State Warriors, who are gunning for their third straight championship, and fourth in five years. They're also coming in as heavy favorites, even with Kevin Durant expected to miss at least the first game, probably the first two, and perhaps the entire series. Durant is arguably the best player in the NBA. His absence, for however long it lasts, is the biggest story in this series, regardless of all the chatter suggesting Golden State could be better without him. 總冠軍賽即將在周四(美國時間)於多倫多開打 由暴龍對上想拼三連霸以及五年四冠的勇士 這系列賽有許多讓人注意的焦點 像是KD可能會缺席一到兩場, 甚至整個總冠軍賽 KD可能是現今NBA最好的球員 無論KD缺席多久, 對於沒有他的勇士可能會更好這個話題來說 將會是這系列賽最大的故事 So that's where we'll start with a look at five main things to watch in these NBA Finals. 那麼, 我們就從這裡開始, 來看看這季總冠軍賽中, 五個主要要關注的事情吧 1. Kevin Durant's absence 1. KD的缺賽 The Warriors aren't better without Durant. They're different, and perhaps equally capable when Steph Curry and Draymond Green are peaking, but their margin for error shrinks considerably without one of the most reliable scorers in NBA history -- and that diminished margin for error is no small thing for a team that has had to squeak by for much of these playoffs. 沒有KD的勇士不會更好, 會不同, 當Curry-嘴綠都打出高效表現時或許會一樣強 但沒了NBA史上最可靠的得分手之一的KD, 容錯空間就變小了 變小了的容錯空間, 對想勉強勝出這些季後賽比賽的球隊來說, 可不是件小事啊 Indeed, the fact that the Warriors are 5-0 since Durant went out of the playoffs and are coming off a sweep of Portland is deceiving. All six games vs. the Rockets were within five points with five minutes to play. In the conference finals, the Blazers had Golden State down at least 17 points in each of the final three games. A couple buckets here or there, one way or the other, and both those series could've played out a lot differently. 確實勇士在少了KD後5勝0負, 包括了橫掃拓荒者 對火箭的六場比賽勝差都在五分內, 也都是最後五分鐘才能分出勝負 西決最後三場, 拓荒者都曾領先勇士至少17分 只要對手在某時某刻, 以任何方式命中投籃, 都能讓次輪跟西決有截然不同的結果 Durant is the guy who usually gets those buckets for the Warriors. These games will be close; don't expect blowouts. In late-game situations, the Raptors can lock Kawhi Leonard onto Stephen Curry. And with no Durant, who gets you a half-court bucket in crunch time? 對勇士來說, KD通常就是那個命中上述那些投籃的人 這些比賽比分將會很接近, 別預期大比分的勝出 以暴龍近期比賽狀況來看, 暴龍能派可愛去鎖住Steph Curry 那時刻沒有了KD, 勇士能讓誰在關鍵時刻投進半場攻勢的跳投呢?? Having said that, in the big picture, it might be on the defensive end where the Warriors feel Durant's absence most. Golden State's playoff defensive metrics actually look better without Durant, but don't let that fool you. That is a product of matchups and the small sample size. The bottom line is you need as many long, capable defenders for Kawhi as possible, and Durant would be one of them. 整理來看我必須說, 少了KD, 勇士應該是在防守端感受最深 這季的季後賽, 少了KD後, 勇士的防守看來真的比較好, 但別讓這想法騙了你 因為這是對位對手跟小數據樣本的結果 底線就是對於防守可愛, 大個子的需要越多越好, KD就是一位這樣的球員 K.D.'s also a rim protector that allows the Warriors to thrive when they go small with Draymond at the five. If Durant were there for a Kawhi timeshare with Andre Iguodala, that would free up Draymond to do his typically destructive work as a roaming wrecking ball blowing up actions all over the court. Now it's just Iguodala, and perhaps some Klay Thompson, with the Warriors having to work extra hard to avoid mismatches as their switching bandwidth shrinks significantly. The Warriors are also a bottom-six defensive rebounding team in the playoffs. They'll miss Durant on the glass. KD也是勇士拼打小陣容, 嘴綠扛中鋒時需要的護框者 如果能有KD上場, 跟Iggy一起分擔防守可愛的責任的話 那嘴綠就可以自由自在的打出他典型的全場推進 而現在只有Iggy, 搭配偶爾K湯的協防 勇士就得為了避免mismatch錯位, 而必須在換防上做出更大的努力 本季勇士在防守籃板保護上, 是到數第六, 他們將會想念有KD能保護籃板的日子 2. How, and with whom, will the Warriors defend Kawhi? 2. 勇士要如何, 以及派誰, 來防守可愛呢?? We just talked about part of this. Guarding Kawhi will be a committee approach, with Iguodala likely seeing the most individual time. The bigger question is whether the Warriors will even guard Leonard one-on-one all that much, or whether they'll blitz, double and trap him in the same ways they did James Harden and Damian Lillard through the first two rounds to exceedingly positive results. It will compromise them elsewhere, of course, to commit a second defender to Kawhi, which makes Toronto's shooting and secondary playmaking a big X-factor in this series. Marc Gasol should help with the latter. If a few of Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Danny Green, Fed VanVleet and Normal Powell are knocking down shots, it might deter the Warriors from committing so heavily to Kawhi. 要談論對可愛的防守將會是個漫長的會議, Iggy可能會是最多單防他的人 更大的問題, 則是勇士大部分時間會選擇單防可愛呢? 還是夾擊防守他? 或是像前兩輪有好結果的, 針對Harden及Lillard那樣的包夾以及設陷阱來防守可愛呢? 當然, 派第二個人去守可愛, 這將會犧牲勇士其他防守部分 將會讓暴龍的投射跟次要的組織者, 成為這系列賽的X因子 小嘎獸應該能在後者(暴龍的次要組織者)上做出貢獻 如果有些暴龍球員, 像是Lowry/Siakam/聖堂綠/VV/Powell等人能多命中些投籃 就會讓勇士重防可愛付出代價 3. Who guards Stephen Curry? 3. 誰來防守Stephen Curry?? Another place where Durant's absence will be seriously felt. Kyle Lowry will likely start on Curry, but when it gets down to it, and for sure if Curry gets it going, the Raptors, without Durant to worry about, will be able to stick Kawhi on Curry. They won't want Kawhi on Curry for long stretches, if they can help it, if only because it will wear down Leonard, who is already playing at less than 100 percent with that obvious leg injury that nobody will really acknowledge. KD的缺賽也會造成另一個深刻的影響 一開始應該是Lowry去守Curry, 但當比賽進行一陣子, 然後Curry打開了之後 不用去擔心KD的暴龍, 將可能派可愛去盯防Curry 情況在控制下的話, 暴龍不會想讓可愛盯防Curry太久, 因為那會透支可愛太多 畢竟可愛在明顯的腿傷下, 已經付出近100%的努力了 Something to watch: Putting Kawhi on Draymond, instead of Curry, blows up the Curry-Green pick and roll because Kawhi is now the switcher onto Curry. The Raptors will likely put Siakam on Curry at times as well, making that Leonard-Siakam defensive duo on the Curry-Green pick and roll super long and athletic. This is where having Durant is such a release valve. Forget the pick and roll -- just give it to Durant and isolate. Not an option at least for the first game and probably more. 值得注意的點: 放可愛去守嘴綠而非Curry, 來擊潰Curry跟嘴綠的檔拆攻勢 先守嘴綠, 如果嘴綠跟Curry檔拆後, 就變成可愛去守Curry 暴龍也可能會讓Siakam偶爾去守Curry, 可愛-Siakam來守嘴綠-Curry檔拆攻勢 這也是KD之所以是勇士安全閥的原因 檔拆行不通, 只要把球交給KD讓他去單打就行 但總冠軍賽起碼一場以上, 勇士沒有這個選項能用 4. Closing time 4. 最後關頭 Again, all six of Golden State's games against Houston were within five points with five minutes to play, which the NBA defines as clutch time. All told, 10 of the Warriors' 16 playoff games have been decided in those final five clutch minutes. They are just 6-4 in those games, and as stated above, they trailed Portland by at least 17 points in each of the final three games of the conference finals. In other words, they are not blowing many games open like they used to. In fact, their point differential through the first three rounds -- 6.2 per 100 possessions -- is the lowest it's been over the past five postseasons. 重申一次, 對火箭的六場比賽, 都是五分以內的勝負, 也都是最後五分鐘分曉 也就是NBA定義的Clutch Time 總計這次季後賽勇士已賽的16場, 有10場是最後五分鐘才拼出勝負的 這10場, 勇士6勝4負, 也如上面提過的, 對阿拓最後三場都曾落後至少17分 換句話說, 勇士沒能像以往那樣有許多比賽那樣, 早早就大比分領先 事實上, 前三輪勇士的均勝分差6.2/100次進攻, 是過去五季以來最差的 Chances are, there are going to be a lot of close games in these Finals, and that actually might favor Toronto, and specifically Leonard, who has become a killer closer and leads the entire playoffs with 48 total points in clutch time. Meanwhile, Curry, for all the talk about his domination in Durant's absence, is shooting just 25.9 percent -- 7 for 27 -- in clutch time during these playoffs. If it is Kawhi checking Steph in those final five minutes, how much do you expect that number to improve? 這次總冠軍賽很可能會有很多關鍵時刻才能決勝負的比賽 這對暴龍有利, 尤其是對可愛來說 可愛已經成長為一位關鍵時刻的殺手, 在本季季後賽clutch time總分48遙遙領先聯盟 同時, KD缺席時Curry在clutch time的表現: 27中7, 25.9%命中率 如果比賽最後五分鐘, 可愛對決Curry, 你覺得這些數據會怎樣提升呢?? 5. Battle of the benches 5. 我替補我驕傲 DeMarcus Cousins, should Steve Kerr ease him back into the rotation as a bench player, is a factor here. Even if he's not his usual All-Star self, just from a pure numbers standpoint he significantly helps the Warriors' depth, which is not even close to what it used to be. Shaun Livingston is not the player he was even a few years ago. Quinn Cook, Jonas Jerebko and Alfonzo McKinnie are not players you want to be depending on in the NBA Finals, though all of them are certainly capable of a big performance here or there. Kerr會不會讓表弟從替補出發, 會是個關鍵 即使他沒能打出從前的全明星表現, 他也能提升勇士的板凳深度 李文不再是幾年前的他, Cook/Jerebko/McKinnie也不是你會想在Finals倚重的球員 即便上述的他們全都可能在某時刻有能力繳出好表現 Toronto's Fred VanVleet, on the other hand, is 14 for his last 17 from 3-point range, a scorching streak that spans the final three games of the conference finals. There is nobody off the Warriors' bench that can provide that kind of firepower, probably Cousins included. Norman Powell has been really good. Serge Ibaka can still play like an All-Star in stretches. OG Anunoby, who's been out since mid-April when he had to have an emergency appendectomy, sounds like he's on track to return during the Finals. The bench is an area were Toronto can make up some points, and frankly it needs to. The Warriors' starting lineup is just better than Toronto's. 另一方面, 暴龍的VV東決最後三場已經三分線17中14 勇士替補群沒有人能像他一樣提供這樣的火力, 可能表弟也沒辦法 Powell已經打的很好, Ibaka還能像全明星那樣的表現 Anunoby也從四月中的傷勢歸隊 替補群是暴龍另一個能取分的點, 老實說也必須如此 因為勇士的先發還是略好於暴龍 好長的文章, 認真翻譯完後希望沒OP......... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 60.250.135.23 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1559019184.A.EB4.html