Re: [請益] 目前美元指數下跌-1.32%，該進場了？

※ 引述《sGuitar (桑哈醬)》之銘言： : 目前美元指數高檔拉回 : 從114到現在112.7 : 美元多頭走勢，拉回就是進場點 : 一路做多so easy ! : 還是早上Ptt換美元的神秘力量文又發威了？ : ----- 摩根士丹利 morgan stanley 認為美元指數 今年年底會上看118 Morgan Stanley forecast the USD index, DXY, to 118 by year-end. Here's why. 27/09/2022 摩根士丹利預期 美元指數於今年年底上看118 "Our forecast of a DXY at 118 by year end would imply a fairly large move over the next three months. Is that justified? We think so," MS notes. “我們對年底美元指數為 118 的預測意味著未來三個月會有相當大的波動。這合理嗎？我們認為是的，”MS 指出。 "Take the DXY's relationship with the market-implied terminal rate, for example. Currently at 4.6%, or roughly in line with the Fed's SEP dots and our house call. But what if in the coming weeks and months data fails to meaningfully decelerate? Won't the market have to price in more risk of rates rising to and above 5%? ... a higher market-implied terminal rate could generate the DXY up to 118," MS adds. “以 DXY 與市場隱含終端利率的關係為例。目前為 4.6%，或大致與美聯儲的 SEP 點和我們的電話會議一致。但如果未來幾周和幾個月的數據未能 顯著減速怎麼辦？ 市場是否必須將利率上升至或超過 5% 的風險定價？......更高的市場隱含終端利率可能會產生高達 118 的 DXY，”MS 補充道。 118 is not that far away given the magnitude of the weekly moves lately: 鑑於最近每週變動的幅度，118 並不遙遠： https://reurl.cc/nOd4Ev 是真是假只能3個月後才知道了 ----- Sent from JPTT on my iPhone -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.138.195.8 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1664459949.A.254.html