[專欄] 哪個教練是本季的ATO大師

https://reurl.cc/A4Y93Y Key Highlights: 可以只看重點： -Since teams only really run set plays after timeouts, the best way to evaluat e a coach’s play-calling acumen is to analyze how their team performs in afte r timeout possessions. -由於球隊只有在暫停後才真正set play，因此評估教練的戰術敏銳度最佳方法是分析球 隊在暫停後的表現。 -Coaches with better offensive personnel have an advantage when it comes to ra w ATO data. So, we need to adjust for that in order to paint a clearer picture . -在原始ATO 數據方面，擁有更好進攻球員的教練具有優勢。因此，我們需要對此進行調 整。 -The best ATO play callers this year are Jason Kidd, Ime Udoka, Tyronn Lue, Ad rian Griffin/Doc Rivers, and Joe Mazzulla. And the worst play callers are Bill y Donovan, Mike Malone, Nick Nurse, J.B. Bickerstaff, and Gregg Popovich. -今年最好的 ATO 教練是 Jason Kidd、Ime Udoka、Tyronn Lue、Adrian Griffin/Doc R ivers 和 Joe Mazzulla。 -最糟糕的是 Billy Donovan 、Mike Malone 、Nick Nurse 、J.B. Bickerstaf 和Gregg Popovich 。 Basketball has come a long way in terms of data. Not only can we tell you how efficient a player is from a particular spot on the floor. But we can also tel l you how well they perform in specific play types like pick-and-rolls and dri bble handoffs. 籃球在數據方面已經取得了長足的進步。我們不僅可以告訴你一名球員在場上特定位置的 效率，也可以告訴你他們在擋拆和運球遞手傳球特定play中的表現如何。 However, one area where sports data is still lacking is in how we evaluate coa ches. One problem is there is so much that happens behind the scenes that we j ust don't know. Another issue is there are so many facets of coaching to analy ze – rotations, timeout usage, play-calling, etc. 然而，運動類數據仍然缺乏的一個領域是如何評估教練。主要問題是幕後發生了太多我們 不知道的事情。另個問題是教練有太多方面需要分析：輪換、暫停的使用、call戰術等。 How We Will Measure Play Calling? 我們如何評估？ The tricky part about assessing a coach’s play-calling acumen in 2024 is how little of it they actually do. In his book, “Spaced Out: The Tactical Evoluti on of the Modern NBA,” Mike Prada dedicates a whole chapter to this topic (Ch apter Five). 2024 年評估教練的戰術智慧棘手之處在於他們實際上做得很少 （可以看這本書...這段 不翻譯了） Most of the time, teams don’t run set plays anymore. They install concepts/pr inciples and let their players free flow and read and react out of that infras tructure. The unpredictability of it all is part of the reason that offenses h ave become so efficient today. 大多數時候，球隊不再set plays ；他們只灌輸概念和原則 讓球員自行發揮、閱讀比賽 並做出反應。這一切的不可預測性是當今進攻變得如此有效率的部分原因。 Nowadays, the only time that coaches get to try their hand at is in plays imme diately following a timeout. You’ve probably heard the phrase “ATO” (after timeout). 如今，教練們唯一嘗試做play-calling的時機是在暫停後立即進行的比賽中，也就是ATO 。 Anyway, fortunately for us, the good people at PBP Stats track how many posses sions and how many points each team has scored on possessions after timeouts. So, we can take a look at how each team performs in these situations. 幸運的是，PBP Stats 人員會追蹤暫停後每支球隊的控球次數和得分。因此，我們可以看 看每個團隊在這些情況下的表現。 A Look At The Data Here is how all 30 teams look on a points per possession basis in after timeou t situations (all this data is as of February 26, 2024): 以下是所有 30 支球隊在暫停後的情況下每次控球得分的情況（所有數據截至 2024 年 2 月 26 日） https://i.imgur.com/JXmrqjd.png 領先者: Boston Celtics (Joe Mazzulla), Dallas Mavericks (Jason Kidd), Los Angeles Clip pers (Tyronn Lue), Milwaukee Bucks (Adrian Griffin/Doc Rivers – man, the iron y 真諷刺), Utah Jazz (Will Hardy) 倒數5名： Charlotte Hornets (Steve Clifford), Portland Trail Blazers (Chauncey Billups), Philadelphia 76ers (Nick Nurse), San Antonio Spurs (Gregg Popovich), and the Cleveland Cavaliers (J.B. Bickerstaff). (Sidebar: It seems like Griffin was better at drawing up ATO’s than Rivers ha s been this season. With Griffin, the Bucks were scoring 1.22 points per posse ssion on their ATOs. Now, with Rivers, they are averaging just 1.14 points per possession on ATOs.) Griffin本賽季似乎比老河更擅長制定ATO。在Griffin的帶領下，公鹿在ATO 上每回合得 分為1.22 分。現在，在老河的帶領下，他們在ATO 上的平均每回合得分僅為1.14 分. Adding Some Nuance To Our Analysis While looking at raw ATO data does give us some insight into who excels in thi s area of coaching. But even the best coaches will tell you that all their bri lliance means nothing if the players can't execute. 為我們的分析做點微調 雖查看原始 ATO 數據可以讓人深入了解誰在教練領域表現更出色，但即使是最好的教練 也會告訴你，如果球員不能執行，他們的功力都毫無意義。 So, when we look at just raw ATO data, we are biasing toward coaches who lead teams with better offensive personnel. After all, it is more likely a coach’s play will succeed when they have great offensive players running it. 因此，當我們僅查看原始 ATO 數據時，會偏向那些擁有更好進攻球員球隊的教練。畢竟 ，當教練有出色的進攻球員來指揮時，ATO更有可能取得成功。 So, when we look at just raw ATO data, we are biasing toward coaches who lead teams with better offensive personnel. After all, it is more likely a coach’s play will succeed when they have great offensive players running it. 如果你仔細觀察，你會發現每回合 ATO 得分排名前五的球隊中有三支在整體進攻效率上 也排名前五（賽提 快艇 和公鹿）。每次控球 ATO 得分排名倒數五位的球隊中，有三支 球隊的整體進攻效率也排名倒數五位（黃蜂、拓荒者和馬刺）。 So, in order to add more nuance to our analysis, we are going to look at each team's ATO points per possession relative to their overall offensive rating. 因此，為了讓分析更精確，我們將考量每支球隊每次控球的 ATO 得分相對於整體進攻效 率的情況。 https://i.imgur.com/mXmcz9b.jpeg 現在我們前5魔法師變成 Mavericks (Kidd), Houston Rockets (Ime Udoka), Clippers (Lue), Bucks (Griffin/Rivers – still so funny), and Celtics (Mazzulla). 倒數5名 : Chicago Bulls (Billy Donovan), Denver Nuggets (Mike Malone), 76ers ( Nurse), Cavaliers (Bickerstaff), and Spurs (Popovich). 心得： 蠻意外的，其實老基是ATO戰術大師 Adrian Griffin 》DocRivers 參考用，只是看到覺得有趣，有興趣可以看原文，有些不太重要就略過了 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 70.249.170.11 (美國) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1709104636.A.DB4.html