[外電] 2010-2019 十大交易案 part1

MLB 記者Mike Petriello在去年12/19寫了這篇文章，分析了過去十年聯盟發生 的十大交易案，今天先試著翻譯前言與他列出的第一筆交易： 原文：https://www.mlb.com/news/the-10-biggest-mlb-trades-of-the-2010s The 10 biggest MLB trades of the 2010s There's often nothing more exciting than a trade. Sure, a huge free-agent signing is fun, but that's really only news for one team and one player. A trade is something totally different. It's multiple teams, multiple players, for potentially many different reasons. Trades can shape future champions or completely change a team's trajectory. They can seem huge at the time and end up not mattering at all. 在MLB的世界裡，沒有任何的新聞比大型交易案更令人興奮了。大咖自由球員加 盟新東家當然很有趣，但不論是多大的FA簽約消息，球迷們能討論的範圍也只侷限在簽約 的球隊與球員上。交易案就不同了，大家能針對被交易球員的實力與價值進行分析，也會 想知道：「為甚麼某某隊要做這個交易？」，然後去分析各隊在打甚麼算盤。交易案可以 完全改變球隊的建隊方向與目標，甚至決定哪支隊伍能奪下冠軍金盃。但某些交易在發生 當時看似巨大，結果卻沒有造成甚麼影響。 With the decade coming to an end, it's a good time to look back at the biggest, most important deals of the decade since Jan. 1, 2010. We're not talking about trades that seemed important and then fizzled, or under-the-radar ones that blew up. We're talking about game-changers, the ones that were huge news at the time and remain relevant today. 2010年代即將來到尾聲，就讓我們來回顧這十年來最大型、且最重要的交易。這 些交易案都在當時引起熱烈的討論風潮，今天我們回顧時也能看到它們所帶來的劇烈影響 。 There's more than 10, obviously. Think about all the trades we wanted to touch on but couldn't, including yet not limited to: 符合上述規則的交易案當然不只十個，我們沒辦法把過去十年所有大交易案都介 紹一遍，包括以下這些遺珠。 ‧ The Adrian Gonzalez/Anthony Rizzo trade (2010) ‧ The Dan Haren/Patrick Corbin/Tyler Skaggs trade (2010) ‧ The Noah Syndergaard/R.A. Dickey/Travis d'Arnaud trade (2012) ‧ The Trevor Bauer/Didi Gregorius/Shin-Soo Choo trade (2012) ‧ The Trea Turner/Wil Myers/Steven Souza Jr. trade (2014) ‧ Either of the David Price trades (2014, '15) ‧ The Adam Eaton/Lucas Giolito trade (2016) ‧ The Sean Doolittle/Blake Treinen/Jesus Luzardo/etc. trade (2017) ‧ The Jose Quintana/Eloy Jimenez/Dylan Cease trade (2017) ‧ The Gerrit Cole heist (2018) ‧ The Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz stunner (2018) Those alone could comprise a pretty interesting list, but they couldn't squeeze onto our top 10. And we're also not including the crazy three-way trade that landed Max Scherzer in Detroit, as that happened in December 2009, a few weeks before the decade began. 這11個交易就可以組成一個很有意思的名單，但他們還是不足以排進我們的前十 名。2009年Max Scherzer交易案因為早了幾周發生，很遺憾的也不在前十名單裡。 *補充Max Sxherzer交易案內容： 老虎得到：Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Daniel Schlereth 送出：Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson 洋基得到：Curtis Granderson 送出：Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson 響尾蛇得到：Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson 送出：Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth The list below is somewhat subjective, obviously; your mileage may vary. Here's our top trades of the last decade. 接下來就是我們心目中的前十大交易案，這個排名可能會很主觀，也歡迎讀者有 不同的看法。 1. The Royals build a title staff Dec. 9, 2012: Rays trade P James Shields, P Wade Davis and IF Elliot Johnson to Royals for OF Wil Myers, P Jake Odorizzi, P Mike Montgomery and IF Patrick Leonard What even? The Royals were coming off nine straight losing seasons, so they dipped into a stacked farm system -- their 2011 prospect list, which included Myers, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Danny Duffy, Montgomery and others, was considered one of the best ever -- to make a win-now move for a team that didn't appear to be ready to win, surrendering a consensus top prospect in Myers, the defending Minor League Player of the Year, plus a pair of well-regarded pitchers in Odorizzi and Montgomery. That prospect pipeline had already supplied the Royals' lineup with Hosmer, Moustakas, Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon, and the Zack Greinke trade had imported Lorenzo Cain, Odorizzi and Alcides Escobar. All that was missing was a right-field replacement for Jeff Francoeur, who'd hit only .235/.287/.378 in 2012. Myers was to be that replacement. That prospect pipeline had already supplied the Royals' lineup with Hosmer, Moustakas, Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon, and the Zack Greinke trade had imported Lorenzo Cain, Odorizzi and Alcides Escobar. All that was missing was a right-field replacement for Jeff Francoeur, who'd hit only .235/.287/.378 in 2012. Myers was to be that replacement. As Grantland wrote at the time: “Instead of replacing Francoeur with Myers in 2013, a switch that would be worth around four wins, they’re stuck with the game’s worst right fielder for another season. The downgrade from Myers to Francoeur is almost enough to cancel out the benefit from acquiring Shields.” The Rays, meanwhile, weren't rebuilding. They were good, having won 90-plus games in 2010, '11 and '12. (They'd do so again in 2013.) With a talented young rotation anchored by David Price, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and Jeremy Hellickson, with Chris Archer on the way, they felt they had the depth to lose Shields, who had two years remaining on his contract, in order to import Myers and friends. 1. James Shields交易案 光芒獲得：Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard 皇家獲得：James Shields, Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson (1) 交易發生背景 皇家已經連續九年勝率沒超過五成（2004-2012），但它們也累積了一票潛力滿 滿 的年輕新秀。2011年皇家的新秀名單包括Wil Myers、Mike Moustakas、Eric Hosmer、 Danny Duffy、Mike Montgomery等，這也被評為史上天賦最好的一批新秀。皇家動用它們 的農場進行補強，不惜放棄Wil Myers（Myers剛奪下小聯盟最佳球員，並且連續兩年在ML B 新秀排行榜裡佔據前20），與Odorizzi 跟Montgomery這兩個評價良好的投手新秀，想要 打 造一支足以競爭季後賽席次的球隊。 當時皇家農場已經產出了Hosmer, Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon， 前一年交易走王牌Greinke又得到了Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi與Alcides Escobar， 這 群年輕球員大幅增強了皇家的打線。但是，皇家在交易走Myers之後卻找不到替代右外野 手J Francour的人選，Francour 在2012年只繳出了.235/.287/.378的淒慘成績。就如同部落 格 Grantland在2012/12/10發布的交易分析文裡的這段： 「皇家本來可以用Myers替換掉聯盟最差的先發右外野手，這個舉動有機會讓皇家2013多 贏四場比賽，從Myers降級成Francour的損失幾乎足以抵銷掉Shields貢獻的產值。」 另一方面，當時光芒才剛經歷三個超過90勝的成功球季（2010-2012），他們隨 後 在2013年也贏了92場。光芒交易走Shields後，他們還是有新科賽揚獎得主David Price擔 任王牌，Matt Moore、Alex Cobb、Jeremy Hellickson組成的二三四號依然穩定，還有當 時才剛展露頭角的Chris Archer。光芒認為他們的輪值深度足以承擔失去James Shields 的 損失。光芒用控制權兩年的Shields為主菜，換來超級新秀Myers與其他完成度高的年輕球 員，著實是一個令人激賞的操作。 Were the takes good or bad? No one liked this for the Royals. Actually, everyone hated this trade at the time, feeling Kansas City had been too aggressive to push a roster that wasn't good enough. "Royals Mortgage Future To Be Mediocre In 2013," blared the FanGraphs headline. "A Royal Blunder," blared that Grantland piece, one that was authored by an admitted Royals fan. ESPN's headline was "Myers acquisition a coup for Rays," and it went on and on like that. (2) 當時交易的評價 我們可以從Fangraphs當時的文章標題 "Royals Mortgage Future To Be Mediocre In 2013" 與Grantland的文章標題 "A Royal Blunder" 看出當時的主流評價認 為皇家太過心急，付出很高的代價，補強後的陣容卻還是沒有足夠的實力。相反的，可以 從 ESPN文章標題 "Myers acquisition a coup for Rays" 看出輿論對於光芒操作的讚揚。 And then what happened? It didn't work out for Kansas City, at first. While the 2013 Royals finally posted a winning record for the first time in a decade, they actually made this deal look somewhat worse by taking Davis, who'd looked like a relief ace in the making for the Rays in 2012 (2.43 ERA, 30.6% strikeout rate) and putting him back in the rotation, where he struggled to a 5.32 mark in '13. Shields had another good year, but Myers, at 22, posted a 131 OPS+ and won the American League Rookie of the Year Award. Even two years later, in 2014, it still looked bad. As this particular author wrote in July of that year, noting how well Odorizzi was pitching, "It’s easy to look at the return for Tampa Bay and think that this is now an even better deal than it looked like back in 2012." Except ... Davis moved back to the bullpen in 2014, spending the next three years as a truly elite reliever (1.18 ERA in 185 games) and recording the final out of the '15 World Series. (He'd later bring back Jorge Soler via trade, and Soler hit a team-record 48 homers in 2019.) Shields did what he was acquired to do -- give the Royals 455 2/3 high-quality innings (3.18 ERA) over his two years in Kansas City. The Royals made it to the World Series in 2014 and won it all in '15, which is all that matters in the end. Meanwhile, Myers disappointed in 2014 (77 OPS+), thanks in part to a broken wrist, and was traded to the Padres after the season for an unimpressive return. He's been more good than great (108 OPS+) in San Diego. Montgomery never pitched for the Rays, though he's carved out a career with the Cubs and is now back with the Royals. Leonard never reached the Majors. Odorizzi was solid with the Rays (3.82 ERA in 698 innings), but he didn't really break out until he got to Minnesota in 2019. The Royals got back-to-back AL pennants, a World Series ring and now Soler. The Rays got some moments from Myers and Odorizzi, but not much else. Sometimes, you really can't predict baseball. (3) 交易後續的影響 一開始，皇家似乎並沒有獲得他們期待的成果。2013年皇家的勝率終於超過五成 ，但他們將Wade Davis放回先發輪值的決策讓這筆交易看起來更慘。2012年Davis在光芒 牛 棚表現驚人（防禦率2.42，三振率30.6%），但2013年主要擔任先發投手的他，只投出防 禦 率5.32的悽慘成績。Shields投出了一個不錯的賽季（228.2IP/3.15ERA/3.47FIP，4.1fWA R ），但22歲的Myers以新人之姿繳出了OPS+131的打擊數據，並一舉奪下了ROY。 到了2014年年中，皇家似乎還是失敗的那一方。Odorizzi與Shields在2014年上 半 季幾乎交出相同的貢獻（113.2局/1.9 fwar對上143.1局/2.3 fwar）根據Mike Pietriell o 於2014/7/29寫的文章段落：「看看光芒從Shields交易案所拿到的回報，現在的結果似乎 比一年半前大家所預期的更成功。」 不過…… Davis於2014年轉回牛棚，2014-2016年成為聯盟最頂尖的救援投手之一（總計出 賽185場，防禦率1.18，fwar 6.5排名後援投手第五），並且他在2015 世界大賽第五戰完 成最後一個出局數，成為重要的奪冠功臣。皇家在2016年12月將Davis交易去小熊，換來 外 野手Jorge Soler，後者在2019年打出了破隊史紀錄的48支全壘打。而Shields在皇家的兩 年十分健康，2013-2014總共主投全聯盟第二多的455.2局，充分展現出前段輪值的實力。 皇家於2014-2015連續兩季闖進世界大賽，更是在2015一舉奪下睽違30年的冠軍獎盃。 與此同時，Myers在2014年受到手腕傷勢的影響繳出了令人失望的賽季（OPS+77 ） ，該球季結束後就被交易至教士隊。他在聖地牙哥的打擊成績雖然不差，但與新秀賽季的 表現相差甚遠（OPS+ 108）；Montgomery 從來沒有身穿光芒球衣出賽過，但他2016-2018 年在小熊的表現良好，現在也回鍋皇家；Odorizzi在光芒的五個賽季證明了他的身手（總 計主投698局，3.82 ERA），但他要等到2019年轉隊雙城後才真正爆發；新秀包裹裡的最 後一名球員Leonard則從沒有上過大聯盟。 最終的結果是，皇家於得到了兩個美聯冠軍、一個世界大賽冠軍、還有年輕強打 Soler。Myers曾在14年短暫的展現明星的潛質，但最終沒有達到光芒一開始的預期， Odorizzi在光芒也只是一個普通的中段先發。棒球就是如此的難以捉摸，對吧？ Would each team do it again? Kansas City doesn't win the World Series without this trade, so absolutely. The Rays probably wish they had eventually received more, but this made all the sense in the world at the time. (4) 如果可以回到過去，交易雙方會反悔嗎？ 如果皇家當時沒有發動這個交易，他們就不會拿到Wade Davis這個奪冠功臣，也 就不會有2015年的冠軍，他們當然不會後悔；光芒也許會希望當時能要求更好的回報，但 這個交易內容當時對他們實在太有利了，現在也很難用後續結果去苛求什麼。 To be continued... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.193.7.182 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1579450414.A.913.html