[新聞] Steam 8成遊戲發售頭2週收入不到五千美金

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作者 wizardfizban
時間 2020年04月09日
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Ars analysis: ~80% of Steam games earn under $5K in first two weeks https://tinyurl.com/thehvlt It has been roughly two years now since Valve shut off the source of Steam Spy's huge, randomly sampled sales estimates and promised a "more accurate and more useful" replacement to come. We got our first glimpse of what that replacement might entail today, as Valve gave a rare glimpse into its treasure trove of aggregate sales data across thousands of PC games. The blog post sharing that data correctly points out that the raw number of games finding some minimum level of sales success on Steam has increased vastly since 2012 (when Valve launched Steam Greenlight and loosened its tight control of what games could appear on the storefront). But Valve's selective view of the data leaves out a huge mass of games that make less than $5,000 in their first two weeks on Steam's virtual shelves. An Ars analysis finds those titles have made up the vast majority of Steam releases for the last five years. Filling in the holes To get at that data for the charts above, we started with the graphs Valve itself provided in its blog post today. These lay out the number of games making over $5,000, $10,000, $50,000, $100,000, and $250,000 in their first two weeks, respectively, by release year. I used photo editing software to measure and convert the bars in those graphs into raw numbers, but the actual numbers may be off by a fraction of a percentage point from Valve's internal benchmarks (we didn't decipher the graphs for 2005 and 2006, when the total number of Steam releases was too small to draw much meaningful data). We then compared those numbers to the total number of Steam releases for each year, as collected by Steam Spy (I removed non-game software and free-to-play games from consideration, as Valve did in its data). Using that, we were able to figure out the one number that Valve pointedly failed to mention for all of these years: the games making less than $5,000 in that two-week launch period. As you can see in Fig. 3, this lowest tier of sales made up well under half of all Steam releases through 2014, a year when Steam still saw less than 1,400 total games hit the storefront. By 2015, though, the raw number of releases had ballooned to over 2,300, and our data shows that increase came almost entirely from games that were struggling to make any significant sales impact at launch. Aurich Lawson Since 2015, both the annual growth rate in Steam releases and the proportion of those releases that struggled at launch continued to increase exponentially, before leveling off in 2019. At this point, though, the ratio of Steam releases that can't hit $5,000 in initial sales has hovered around 80 percent for the last three years. As Valve acknowledges in its blog post, these launch window revenue cutoffs are somewhat arbitrary. A game that makes $4,000 in a couple of weeks could be considered a huge success for a hobbyist programmer just getting their solo start. Initial sales also don't always capture the full picture for games that may find success long after launch, as well. But Valve also points out that "most recent games earning around $10,000 in the first two weeks earned between $20,000 and $60,000 over the course of 12 months following release." Convert that to an annual revenue number for a struggling indie developer, and you can see how launch window sales of under $5,000 can easily be considered a commercial failure (though the calculus changes if a developer can crank out multiple games per year or keep sales steady for a multi-year period). What does it mean? There are two ways to look at these numbers. The first, which Valve focuses on in its blog post, is the raw number of games in those "high initial revenue" groupings (i.e. above $5,000). As you can see in Fig. 2 (and below), the number of such titles generally rose slowly after Steam launched, absolutely exploded in 2014 amid looser Steam Greenlight standards, and continued to rise from that expanded number since then. Many more total games are quickly finding a significant audience on Steam than ever before, and Valve can rightly feel good about that. But even as the number of successes on Steam has increased, the number of failures has increased even more, both on an absolute and relative basis. For developers, that means just getting a game on Steam isn't anything close to a guarantee of being able to find a significant audience these days. For players, that means sifting through Steam storefront listings full of a lot of crap that apparently very few people want to buy. Valve is constantly tinkering with its "discovery" algorithms to help with both sides of this equation, and those algorithms do the best they can to direct deserving games to their deserving audiences. But on a platform with increasingly hands-off submission guidelines and dozens of games launching every day, there are inevitably going to be a lot of losers in Steam's sales lottery. There are signs that things are improving, though. As Valve points out in its blog post, the proportion of games reaching that $10,000 initial sales milestone ticked up 11 percent from 2018 to 2019, slightly reducing the "failure rate" for a generic Steam release in the last year. And the average initial earnings for Steam games increased from 2018 to 2019 at all but the lowest percentile levels. Those numbers suggest that quality games are starting to find even larger audiences on Steam these days, while weaker titles are proving even less lucrative. That doesn't mean we'll be getting back to the relative "all killer no filler" world of early Steam any time soon, but maybe we're starting to get a little closer with each passing year. Listing image by Getty / Aurich Lawson ==== 這數據說真的完全不讓人意外。 這只是再次證明了以前有人討論過的幾個論點。 一、Steam的主要收入來自3A級大作的抽成,其它的能給Steam的收益不高。 二、遊戲業的競爭越來越激烈,而Steam能給於的幫助也很有限。遊戲數量越來越多,不可 能每個都能被玩家注意到,Steam的廣告位也就那些。 另外這新聞其實也忽視了一件事。 那就是Steam上其實不少低成本的簡單遊戲,這些遊戲能賣到五千美金都能回本了。 -- 「把已經倒下的人們的願望,還有未來的人們的希望,把這二種心情全都織入雙重螺旋 之中,挖出通往明天的道路。那就是天元突破,那就是Gurren-Lagann, 我的鑽頭....是用來開天闢地的鑽頭啊!!」 ── 西蒙 《天元突破 紅蓮之眼》 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.233.146.52 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/C_Chat/M.1586402945.A.639.html wizardfizban:轉錄至看板 Steam 04/09 11:29
1FFuckQguy: 一堆糞G能賣出去就不錯惹 04/09 11:30
2FCODDDD: 垃圾Game一大堆能賺到就該偷哭了 04/09 11:30
3Fgaym19: 一大堆糞GAME能賣出去就不錯了 04/09 11:32
4Felvis222: 一堆糞Game是要賣什麼啦 04/09 11:34
5Fwangmytsai: 不得不說還真的有七八成看起來都很像糞game 04/09 11:36
6FRockCat0218: 就一堆垃圾Game啊 04/09 11:36
7FDON3000: 一堆只有圖片的垃圾 04/09 11:36
8FYamatoAl: 特價機制也是個原因吧 steam基本上越晚買越便宜 所以除 04/09 11:36
9FYamatoAl: 了少數3A大作會有夠多預約以外 通常會觀望一陣子 風評 04/09 11:36
10FYamatoAl: 夠好又特價了才會買 04/09 11:36
11Fwolver: 翻譯 STEAM上面越來越多騙錢垃圾遊戲 04/09 11:36
12Fwizardfizban: 這樣說也不對 有很多遊戲是那種沒特價根本不想買的 04/09 11:37
13Fgn00851667: 0~5000 04/09 11:38
14Fk1k1832002: EA的不知道算不算在內,算在內那也蠻正常的 04/09 11:38
15Fk1k1832002: 因為很多就是出來試水溫,籌資繼續磨 04/09 11:38
16Fdnek: 小遊戲看的是長尾效應,這才是成功的點 04/09 11:38
17Fwizardfizban: 開始賣錢就是發售了呀 XD 04/09 11:38
18Fgn00851667: 選擇太多 不是特別有吸引力的就等免費特價 04/09 11:39
19Fegg781: 我是沒逛小遊戲的習慣,通常會買的小遊戲都是網路上看到 04/09 11:40
20Fegg781: 實況覺得好像不錯,直接去搜尋 04/09 11:40
21Ftp950016: 一堆連介紹讓人看不下去的糞game,這數字很正常 04/09 11:40
22Fwizardfizban: 像我真的想玩的 看到就會買了... 04/09 11:40
23FGief: 越晚買越便宜實在是非常奇怪的銷售手法 通常都馬是要越晚買 04/09 11:40
24Fegg781: 至於垃圾GAME,因為沒在逛也就沒去碰過 04/09 11:41
25Fwizardfizban: 更多是有興趣就丟願望清單 放到特價都不一定買的 04/09 11:41
26FGief: 越貴 反著幹有夠奇怪 04/09 11:41
27Fwizardfizban: 越晚買越便宜那奇怪了...你當遊戲是古董哦 04/09 11:41
28Fegg781: 遊戲第一波買氣過去後,就是折價會讓一些覺得便宜點才想買 04/09 11:42
29Fjohn29908: 早買早享受晚買享折扣啊 04/09 11:42
30Fegg781: 的消費者買,這樣也是一筆收入 04/09 11:42
31Fk1k1832002: 畢竟吸引力不夠就是等降價,很吸引人當然直接衝幹麼等 04/09 11:43
32Fvsepr55: 改成500美金搞不好也差不多八成 04/09 11:43
33Fegg781: 像UBI~要我衝首發?你開玩笑逆?但他們也不是甚麼都爛 04/09 11:43
34Fegg781: 所以便宜些我是願意買來玩 04/09 11:43
35Froger2623900: 5000鎂應該也是極少數吧XD 04/09 11:44
36Fegg781: 有些遊戲DLC一大堆,等折價一起買價格實在差很多 04/09 11:45
37FGief: 那你第一波就直接特價不就好了? 04/09 11:45
38Fwizardfizban: 你是菜鳥哦 一堆遊戲一發售就先折10%的 04/09 11:46
39Fvsepr55: 有人就比較有錢啊,先賺那些人的 04/09 11:46
40Fwizardfizban: 這在Steam很常見呀... 04/09 11:46
41Fwizardfizban: 然後一段時間後就沒打折了 就是要吸引人馬上買呀 04/09 11:46
42Fegg781: 通常都是預售折價就是了 04/09 11:47
43FGief: 不是說一堆遊戲都越晚買越便宜? 04/09 11:48
44Fegg781: 還有像邊緣禁地3有自知之明的,回STEAM直接先打對折 04/09 11:48
45Fwizardfizban: 對呀 因為之後的打折就不只10%了呀! 04/09 11:48
46Fyen0829: 怎麼不看steam平台的穩定性與多元受眾 04/09 11:48
47Fyen0829: 各種類型的遊戲都能找到愛好者 04/09 11:48
48Fyen0829: 放久了營收自然有 04/09 11:49
49Fwizardfizban: 所以遊戲一般最貴時就是發售折扣結束後那段時間呀 04/09 11:49
50FGief: 那就為何不一開始就減價那麼多呀... 04/09 11:49
51Fga2006221985: 想像一下,用RPG製作大師做一個月的遊戲能賺到5000 04/09 11:49
52Fga2006221985: 美薛海好嗎 04/09 11:49
53Fwizardfizban: 拜託 一堆商品也都是放久了就開始打折 又不只遊戲 04/09 11:50
54Fk1k1832002: 定價策略問題 04/09 11:51
55Fhsiehhsing: 來統計一下有多少人買蛋黃人生 04/09 11:51
56FZMTL: 預售特價是為了先衝動消費拐一波(讓人連評價都沒的參考就 04/09 11:51
57Fwizardfizban: 而且你應該要說的是為什麼售價不定低點吧 XD 04/09 11:51
58Fk1k1832002: 不是一開始打低就能解決,打低後面95%不可能漲價,除 04/09 11:51
59Fk1k1832002: 非有些脫離EA階段有可能 04/09 11:51
60FZMTL: 買下去),之後賣原價就是為了再賺急著玩的人一筆啊 04/09 11:52
61Fhunng5: steam感覺只有城市天空線,世紀帝國2比較好,前者是3D的 04/09 11:52
62Fhunng5: 模擬城市(要有一定規模的電腦才跑的動),後者是過了2x年 04/09 11:52
63Fhunng5: 還屹立不搖的2D策略遊戲 04/09 11:52
64FZMTL: 而且如果隨時都有特價、直接特價到最低點,正常玩家的心態 04/09 11:52
65FZMTL: 會變成那等我想玩、看評價夠好再來買 04/09 11:53
66FZMTL: 但當特價是有期限的,才會讓人在特價期間覺得不買就錯過了, 04/09 11:53
67FZMTL: 結果最後買了一堆堆在那邊沒時間玩廠商還是賺了 04/09 11:53
68Fyen0829: G胖厲害的就是市場策略跟玩家心理的掌握 04/09 11:54
69Fhunng5: 有些遊戲就算給你限時免費下載 04/09 11:54
70Fhunng5: 也做不起來 04/09 11:54
71FMikageSayo: STEAM:親愛的用戶您好,今天又有遊戲跳樓特賣了 04/09 11:54
72Fegg781: 而且折多少要不要參加活動也是廠商自己決定,你夠硬頸 04/09 11:55
73FZMTL: 別說了,Steam一堆限免但連領都不想領的遊戲也是XD 04/09 11:55
74Fegg781: 也可以像光榮一樣,林北價格就是這麼硬,折?折你老木 04/09 11:56
75Fdoomhammer: 先等打折 反正遊戲庫裡還堆那麼多遊戲沒玩 04/09 11:56
76Fwizardfizban: Steam上也有永不特價的經典遊戲呀 04/09 11:57
77Fvancepeng: 一堆糞game是要賣什麼 04/09 11:57
78Fdoomhammer: 50% 75%都可以 有時候看朋友實況主在玩被燒到就衝 04/09 11:57
79Fwizardfizban: 像Factorio就是了 沒特價過 但是經典之作 04/09 11:57
80FZMTL: 日廠真的價格有夠硬的,夢幻模擬戰1+2重製居然要賣1988 04/09 11:58
81Fhunng5: 就算價格再硬,只要能證明你的遊戲能值這個錢,還是一堆人 04/09 11:58
82Fhunng5: 搶著買 04/09 11:58
83FZMTL: 雖然期待重製很久了,但這價錢我真的沒辦法 04/09 11:58
84Flinbasohigh: 畢竟一千八的首發風險實在太大,像這次惡靈古堡3重製 04/09 11:58
85Flinbasohigh: 我就很後悔,大概五個小時破完,另一個模式又一直配 04/09 11:58
86Flinbasohigh: 不到人,一千八真的買的很嘔 04/09 11:58
87Fegg781: 是蠻貴的,RE3我也是首發,但因為以前我是買SS,沒玩過3代 04/09 11:59
88Fegg781: 所以我是還好啦,算是彌補遺憾 04/09 12:00
89Fcoleus12507: 廢話 一堆預覽圖看了就不想玩的遊戲 04/09 12:09
90Fs51007john: 合理啊 大部分人還是只買話題性夠的遊戲 很多獨立製作 04/09 12:11
91Fs51007john: 的根本沒人要買 04/09 12:11
92Fmikeneko: steam不能賣二手啊,像RE3要我花1800買我才不要 04/09 12:17
93Fmikeneko: 如果1800入手,可以玩完1400脫手,絕對能吸引更多玩家 04/09 12:17
94Faram9527: 屁啦 這樣誰還要買 全都等二手啊== 04/09 12:27
95Faa7898918: 有些ea的內容根本像半成品 04/09 12:29
96Fmikeneko: 實體片就能這樣操作啊,玩新遊戲才幾百塊還不用等特價 04/09 12:33
97Fmikeneko: 收二手再賣甚至只要花運費,遊戲本體根本不用錢 04/09 12:34
98Fga2006221985: 想第一時間的人就會買新片,可以等的人就會多等幾 04/09 12:44
99Fga2006221985: 天買二手,不可能所有人都能多等那幾天所以新片不 04/09 12:44
100Fga2006221985: 會沒人買 04/09 12:44
101Fangus12324: 一堆比大學生專題還爛的 04/09 12:44
102Falankira: 長期特價就不是特價了,那只是把定價定比較低 04/09 13:07
103Famaranth: 東西過季打折很正常吧,會原價買的都衝完了,再來要吸 04/09 13:32
104Famaranth: 引有點興趣但不是很高的潛在客人 04/09 13:32
105Fnalthax: 越晚買好奇心越低,因為網路上一堆心得、攻略跟棄坑的玩 04/09 13:57
106Fnalthax: 家 04/09 13:57
107FCriminalCAO: 一堆糞game 04/09 14:16
108Fcorlos: 這就像YTer覺得他們耍的猴戲很有價值一樣 -.- 04/09 15:10
109Fcorlos: 事實上如果要付錢,我才不要看你的表演 04/09 15:11
110Fcorlos: 只不過是第四台附加上去的頻道而已還以為有拍就有錢 04/09 15:11
111Falex90236: 糞game真的多 04/09 15:41
112Fguogu: 正常,一天快30款遊戲上架,有可能款款精品嗎? 04/09 16:02
113Fa032100: 發售就折價的是要搞衝榜效應 大作幾乎沒在跟你折價的好 04/09 17:47
114Fa032100: 嗎 04/09 17:47
115Fa032100: 買二手作品過了第一波高峰銷售的淘汰貨跟Steam降價賣是差 04/09 17:52
116Fa032100: 在哪 04/09 17:52
117Fkenkenapple: 首發玩到糞game真的會肚爛= = 04/09 23:54

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