[颱風] 91W GW

WTPQ31 RJTD 261200 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 9.3N 140.9E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS A TD IS LOCATED AT 9.3N, 140.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM. = -- 數值預報 072606Z EC https://i.imgur.com/mr3cpkg.png GFS https://i.imgur.com/Vyjc49c.png -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.162.24.159 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1690382151.A.EBA.html